HorusZA
Topic Author
Posts: 49
Joined: Sat 28 Nov 2020, 08:48

Analysis of Weapon Lethality

Wed 09 Dec 2020, 12:52

I've run a few numbers to see how deadly the game is.

A few caveats, assumptions and observations on how I went about this:
1.) Normal Damage doesn't kill you, it only incapacitates (yes, it does make you vulnerable to a coup-de-gras but that's almost impossible to model).
2.) Critical Hits can kill a character in one of two ways: by inflicting a lethal wound that requires treatment over time, or by an instant kill. For purposes of this analysis a hit is considered Lethal if it's listed as such on the Critical Injuries table. For "Instant Death" it's the 10 results for Head and Torso.
3.) All Critical Hits are created equal with one exception (see next point). The source of the critical hit doesn't matter: a broken bottle uses the same table as a 12.7mm round.
4.) There is an edge-case to the above: Severe Injuries (p.71) "If the damage of your attack is equal to twice the weapon’s crit threshold or more you roll two D10s on the critical injury table and use the highest result." However, there are very few weapons that are actually capable of doing this: those with Damage 1 and Crit 2 (you need 4 successes, 1 to hit and 3 to add to damage).
In my tables I have indicated this with an asterisk (*)
5.) For my calculations I have assumed an unarmoured target.
6.) The "Weapon Crit" column in my tables refers to how much higher the Crit Threshold is above the base damage. It makes no difference if it's Dam: 2 / Crit: 3 or Dam: 3 / Crit: 4 for example.
7.) If the Crit Threshold is equal to or below the Base Damage, the numbers are the same. This only really comes into effect when armour is added to the model, which it isn't in this case.
8.) I have used a spread of different die combinations: D12 and D10, D10 and D8, D8 and D6 and just a D8. It doesn't matter which is skill and which is ability.
9.) I have ignored Ammo Dice as they cannot cause critical hits in most cases.
10.) I may have made a mistake or two, please don't get mad if I did :)

A general observation:
Any critical hit has a 62% chance of being lethal and a 7% chance of killing the character outright.
(1/6 [head] * 0.8 [chance of being lethal] + 3/6 [body] * 0.7 + 1/6 [leg] * 0.4 + 1/6 [arm] * 0.4) = 0.616
and
(1/6 [head] * 0.1 + 3/6 [body] * 0.1 + 2/6 [arms & legs] * 0) = 0.0667

A Severe Injury has an 83% chance of being lethal and a 13% chance of killing outright.

Chance of Scoring a Lethal Hit
Weapon Examples:					Weapon Crit		D12&D10		D10&D8		D8&D6		D8
Punch, Club, Improvised Bow, Zip Gun, Makarov		Base Damage +2		9.76%		2.31%		0.00%		0.00%
Most Weapons: M16, Colt M1911, LMGs, AK			Base Damage +1		28.26%		15.42%		3.85%		0.00%
Bottle, Glock 17, Beretta 92, MP5			Base Damage +1*		28.79%		15.42%		3.85%		0.00%
Axe, Sniper Rifles & HMG				Base Damage or less	48.82%		42.40%		29.55%		23.13%

Chance of Scoring an Instant Kill
Weapon Examples:					Weapon Crit		D12&D10		D10&D8		D8&D6		D8
Punch, Club, Improvised Bow, Zip Gun, Makarov		Base Damage +2		1.06%		0.25%		0.00%		0.00%
Most Weapons: M16, Colt M1911, LMGs, AK, etc.		Base Damage +1		3.06%		1.67%		0.42%		0.00%
Bottle, Glock 17, Beretta 92, MP5			Base Damage +1*		3.21%		1.67%		0.42%		0.00%
Axe, Sniper Rifles & HMG				Base Damage or less	5.28%		4.58%		3.19%		2.50%

Weapons that "auto-crit" (i.e. those that have a crit rating equal to or less than there base damage) are brutal!
The ability to cause a Severe Injury only makes a small difference (you need 4 successes after all) but it still causes an odd situation where a Bottle wielded by an expert is marginally more lethal than a 5.56!
An axe is clearly the weapon of choice for close encounters!
A punch is as lethal as a 9mm Makarov (hmm.. on second thoughts maybe not, as unarmed attack can be blocked which may reduce net successes.)

Anyways, I thought people may find this analysis useful :)
 
welsh
Posts: 202
Joined: Sun 29 Nov 2020, 15:53

Re: Analysis of Weapon Lethality

Wed 09 Dec 2020, 16:35

4.) There is an edge-case to the above: Severe Injuries (p.71) "If the damage of your attack is equal to twice the weapon’s crit threshold or more you roll two D10s on the critical injury table and use the highest result." However, there are very few weapons that are actually capable of doing this: those with Damage 1 and Crit 2 (you need 4 successes, 1 to hit and 3 to add to damage).
In my tables I have indicated this with an asterisk (*)
The severe injury mechanic is broken, as weapons that do little damage are more likely to cause severe injuries. But I wonder how well it works with blast injuries, something I haven't had any time to look at.

Also, the fact that all criticals are equally likely is a problem that will require some referee judgment. As the rules are now written, concertina wire can cut your leg clean off. But this is the kind of thing where you expect to sometimes fudge imo.
 
paladin2019
Posts: 539
Joined: Mon 07 Dec 2020, 09:16

Re: Analysis of Weapon Lethality

Thu 10 Dec 2020, 19:56

Also, the fact that all criticals are equally likely is a problem that will require some referee judgment. As the rules are now written, concertina wire can cut your leg clean off. But this is the kind of thing where you expect to sometimes fudge imo.
That's just because bared wire in general is too beefy. I have crossed lost of it and never "taken damage" when I succeeded. And I've gotten tangled in concertina and not taken a critical; the biggest concern is just getting stuck and being unable to dodge, etc., when the bad guys come looking.

Th bigger risk is to vehicle suspension. While barbed wire won't stop them (except for extremely light things like motorcycles and maybe FAVs), the will cut tires and wrap around suspensions. Multiple damaged parts for wheel vehicles and thrown track for tanks, possibly treated as critical damage targeting the suspension.
 
Aldaron
Posts: 7
Joined: Sat 28 Nov 2020, 13:06

Re: Analysis of Weapon Lethality

Fri 11 Dec 2020, 07:31

Ouch, regarding the normal vs critical damage. I hadn't even noticed that. I am far from conversant with all the rules, so far, so I'm hesitant to make a final decision, but that really does seem...broken.
 
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Vader
Posts: 944
Joined: Fri 15 Nov 2019, 14:11
Location: The Frozen North

Re: Analysis of Weapon Lethality

Fri 11 Dec 2020, 08:58

Ouch indeed...! :shock:
Before you use the word "XENOMORPH" again, you should read this article through:

https://www.wired.co.uk/article/aliens-throwaway-line-confusion
 
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omnipus
Posts: 742
Joined: Mon 22 Jun 2020, 20:58

Re: Analysis of Weapon Lethality

Fri 11 Dec 2020, 20:42

Tomas already said that particular quirk had slipped past them and they would take a look at how to fix it. Which basically means the whole alpha concept is working.
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