A few caveats, assumptions and observations on how I went about this:
1.) Normal Damage doesn't kill you, it only incapacitates (yes, it does make you vulnerable to a coup-de-gras but that's almost impossible to model).
2.) Critical Hits can kill a character in one of two ways: by inflicting a lethal wound that requires treatment over time, or by an instant kill. For purposes of this analysis a hit is considered Lethal if it's listed as such on the Critical Injuries table. For "Instant Death" it's the 10 results for Head and Torso.
3.) All Critical Hits are created equal with one exception (see next point). The source of the critical hit doesn't matter: a broken bottle uses the same table as a 12.7mm round.
4.) There is an edge-case to the above: Severe Injuries (p.71) "If the damage of your attack is equal to twice the weapon’s crit threshold or more you roll two D10s on the critical injury table and use the highest result." However, there are very few weapons that are actually capable of doing this: those with Damage 1 and Crit 2 (you need 4 successes, 1 to hit and 3 to add to damage).
In my tables I have indicated this with an asterisk (*)
5.) For my calculations I have assumed an unarmoured target.
6.) The "Weapon Crit" column in my tables refers to how much higher the Crit Threshold is above the base damage. It makes no difference if it's Dam: 2 / Crit: 3 or Dam: 3 / Crit: 4 for example.
7.) If the Crit Threshold is equal to or below the Base Damage, the numbers are the same. This only really comes into effect when armour is added to the model, which it isn't in this case.
8.) I have used a spread of different die combinations: D12 and D10, D10 and D8, D8 and D6 and just a D8. It doesn't matter which is skill and which is ability.
9.) I have ignored Ammo Dice as they cannot cause critical hits in most cases.
10.) I may have made a mistake or two, please don't get mad if I did
A general observation:
Any critical hit has a 62% chance of being lethal and a 7% chance of killing the character outright.
(1/6 [head] * 0.8 [chance of being lethal] + 3/6 [body] * 0.7 + 1/6 [leg] * 0.4 + 1/6 [arm] * 0.4) = 0.616
and
(1/6 [head] * 0.1 + 3/6 [body] * 0.1 + 2/6 [arms & legs] * 0) = 0.0667
A Severe Injury has an 83% chance of being lethal and a 13% chance of killing outright.
Chance of Scoring a Lethal Hit
Code: Select all
Weapon Examples: Weapon Crit D12&D10 D10&D8 D8&D6 D8
Punch, Club, Improvised Bow, Zip Gun, Makarov Base Damage +2 9.76% 2.31% 0.00% 0.00%
Most Weapons: M16, Colt M1911, LMGs, AK Base Damage +1 28.26% 15.42% 3.85% 0.00%
Bottle, Glock 17, Beretta 92, MP5 Base Damage +1* 28.79% 15.42% 3.85% 0.00%
Axe, Sniper Rifles & HMG Base Damage or less 48.82% 42.40% 29.55% 23.13%Chance of Scoring an Instant Kill
Code: Select all
Weapon Examples: Weapon Crit D12&D10 D10&D8 D8&D6 D8
Punch, Club, Improvised Bow, Zip Gun, Makarov Base Damage +2 1.06% 0.25% 0.00% 0.00%
Most Weapons: M16, Colt M1911, LMGs, AK, etc. Base Damage +1 3.06% 1.67% 0.42% 0.00%
Bottle, Glock 17, Beretta 92, MP5 Base Damage +1* 3.21% 1.67% 0.42% 0.00%
Axe, Sniper Rifles & HMG Base Damage or less 5.28% 4.58% 3.19% 2.50%Weapons that "auto-crit" (i.e. those that have a crit rating equal to or less than there base damage) are brutal!
The ability to cause a Severe Injury only makes a small difference (you need 4 successes after all) but it still causes an odd situation where a Bottle wielded by an expert is marginally more lethal than a 5.56!
An axe is clearly the weapon of choice for close encounters!
A punch is as lethal as a 9mm Makarov (hmm.. on second thoughts maybe not, as unarmed attack can be blocked which may reduce net successes.)
Anyways, I thought people may find this analysis useful