SykesFive
Posts: 39
Joined: Tue 07 Sep 2021, 21:15

Re: The number of nukes used in Poland

Thu 10 Mar 2022, 23:08

It is interesting to think about what kinds of warheads were available to NATO in the 4th ed. version of the Twilight War.

Historically (i.e., real history with the USSR collapsing and no Twilight War), the United States almost entirely phased out tactical nuclear weapons in the early 1990s. This began with the Presidential Nuclear Initiatives of 1991, which called for the withdrawal and dismantlement of all ground-based and sea-based tactical nuclear weapons, consisting of 155mm and 203mm artillery shells, Lance and sea-launched Tomahawk (TLAM-N) missile warheads, and nuclear depth bombs. (Contrary to some popular beliefs, the United States did not possess nuclear torpedoes at this time.) Additionally, nuclear bombs were removed from aircraft carriers. Keep in mind intermediate-range nuclear forces (Pershings and ground-launched Tomahawks) had previously been withdrawn under the INF Treaty.

The United States' decision to phase out these classes of weapon immediately affected NATO countries that participated in nuclear sharing, since their artillery and tactical missile warheads were provided under dual-key arrangements.

The only tactical weapons left ready to use were air-delivered bombs, some of which remained forward-deployed for NATO missions, including nuclear sharing, and are retained for this purpose today. In addition, it appears the TLAM-N may have been retained in storage as late as 2013. An idea that was discussed at the time was using Trident submarine-launched ballistic missiles in a sub-strategic role; however, the warhead yields were too great for what we tend to think of as tactical use.

Keep in mind the strategic arsenal of intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarine-launched ballistic missiles, bombs, and air-launched cruise missiles was not directly affected. Not directly related to this, the USAF retired the SRAM nuclear missile in 1993 over safety concerns but continued to operate the ALCM.

In the 1st and 2d ed. timelines, the near-abandonment of tactical nuclear weapons probably doesn't happen (and in 1st ed. it's questionable whether the INF Treaty would have been made).

In the 4th ed. timeline, it probably does since there are a few years during which it looks like the Cold War is over and the United States government had been very eager to get rid of these classes of weapon. Most likely at the time things heated back up many of the warheads had not been dismantled or could be reassembled.

In 4th ed., France is an enthusiastic participant in the Twilight War. France did not participate in NATO nuclear sharing and had its own tactical warheads and delivery systems including the Hades tactical missile. As far as I know, France never fielded nuclear artillery shells. Historically, France's nuclear posture was not revised until 1996.
Last edited by SykesFive on Fri 06 May 2022, 16:07, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Vihkr
Posts: 8
Joined: Wed 20 Apr 2022, 21:27

Re: The number of nukes used in Poland

Wed 20 Apr 2022, 23:43

Has anyone tried to figure out or - even better - list or map the nuclear strikes in Poland? While some locations are mentioned in the official lore, it is quite vague. Currently it is difficult to understand how many cities have been hit or how likely is it to encounter a nuke strike crater.
Try this
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Azrael20
Posts: 14
Joined: Sun 09 Jan 2022, 20:24

Re: The number of nukes used in Poland

Thu 21 Apr 2022, 16:21

I'm currently trying to game out a "realistic" amount of nukes used, based on real-life SAC/American targets listings. Currently, I'm at roughly ~120 strategic-series nuclear weapons used in Poland (strategic, meaning >100kt). Roughly a third are used outside of Warsaw, with other concentrations being in Wroclaw and Katowice (major industrial centers), only one to three used around Krakow (actually supporting it's relative civilization in T2K), and smatterings of warheads used on airports, ports, highways, and rail centers.

What's interesting is that, given the course of the war, Poland initially stands to be hit primarily by NATO. NATO would be very reluctant to hit it at first, because, well, it's a NATO member, and the reason for war. It's politically unpalatable. Initial NATO strikes would likely be a few tactical warheads on the direct frontline (IIRC said to be, at the start of the strikes, in Germany - Leipzig is directly mentioned),
along with some larger tactical warheads (think Pershing-II, GLCM) dropped on Soviet peripheral territory in Ukraine or Belarus. Poland would likely be spared until A. NATO counteroffensive reaches Poland or B. strikes escalate and NATO needs to strike Soviet LOCs and HQs in Poznan, Warsaw, etc. Then, once NATO enters Poland, Poland suffers some Soviet retaliatory strikes.

To that, I'd add maybe an two dozen high-yield tactical warheads for more "mobile" hard targets - mobile command headquarters, nuclear weapons, etc - and anywhere from 40 to 50 small "tactical" strikes - low-yield bombs of 5-20kt, low-yield MGM-51 strikes (you KNOW they'd be brought out of reserve) and/or nuclear ATACMs (it's capable, just never really bothered with cold war collapse), short-range rockets or FROGs, etc. All much smaller-yield and used more on an immediate/ad hoc basis, not as a planned operation but as contingencies arise (hitting divisional HQs, bridges or bridging attempts, radars...etc.)

Overall, call it roughly 120-140 strategic/high yield tactical and 40-50 low yield tactical as a guesstimate. Possibly more tactical as the frontlines stagnate, but, frankly, I'd expect bulk of anything with range to be flung at Germany (NATO's rear lines), Ukraine (USSR's rear lines), or at America/Russia proper. And tac warheads also used in similar amounts in Czechoslovakia/Hungary/Romania, which, remember, are ALSO frontlines right now.
 
baldrick0712
Posts: 672
Joined: Fri 28 May 2021, 12:29

Re: The number of nukes used in Poland

Fri 22 Apr 2022, 20:00

I like this site best: you can overlay the explosion effects onto Google Maps and see how your hometown would fare:
https://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/
This is great as it allows you to also see the effects of fallout from low altitude or ground bursts versus airbursts. The fact that airbursts above a certain altitude depending on the size of the warhead produce negligible fallout is quite scary to me as it almost makes a limited nuclear war plausible. In other words, you CAN, if you are insane enough, use nukes at high enough altitude that they are just like very powerful conventional bombs with minimal long-lasting radiation effects. After all, the US set off over 1000 nukes within 65 miles of Las Vegas and as far as I'm aware Las Vegas isn't an irradiated city.
 
SykesFive
Posts: 39
Joined: Tue 07 Sep 2021, 21:15

Re: The number of nukes used in Poland

Fri 06 May 2022, 16:13


In other words, you CAN, if you are insane enough, use nukes at high enough altitude that they are just like very powerful conventional bombs with minimal long-lasting radiation effects. After all, the US set off over 1000 nukes within 65 miles of Las Vegas and as far as I'm aware Las Vegas isn't an irradiated city.
A lot of those nukes were set off at pretty low altitudes, and the weather patterns meant most of the fallout affected people were in Arizona, Nevada (though not Las Vegas), and Utah. "Downwinders" who lived in the area during the period of nuclear testing from 1951 to 1958 are eligible for free cancer screenings and, if diagnosed with one of the cancers attributed to nuclear weapons testing, compensation. This program is actually set to end this year.
 
SykesFive
Posts: 39
Joined: Tue 07 Sep 2021, 21:15

Re: The number of nukes used in Poland

Fri 06 May 2022, 16:21


low-yield MGM-51 strikes (you KNOW they'd be brought out of reserve) and/or nuclear ATACMs (it's capable, just never really bothered with cold war collapse)

Took me a minute. MGM-51 is the Shillelagh antitank guided missile used by the the Sheridan light tank. You mean the Lance tactical ballistic missile, which is MGM-52.


I agree that even if the PNIs were implemented and most removed tactical nuclear capability, by 1997 it would have been possible to return Lance to service or come up with a nuclear payload for ATACMS.
 
Azrael20
Posts: 14
Joined: Sun 09 Jan 2022, 20:24

Re: The number of nukes used in Poland

Sat 14 May 2022, 01:42


low-yield MGM-51 strikes (you KNOW they'd be brought out of reserve) and/or nuclear ATACMs (it's capable, just never really bothered with cold war collapse)

Took me a minute. MGM-51 is the Shillelagh antitank guided missile used by the the Sheridan light tank. You mean the Lance tactical ballistic missile, which is MGM-52.


I agree that even if the PNIs were implemented and most removed tactical nuclear capability, by 1997 it would have been possible to return Lance to service or come up with a nuclear payload for ATACMS.
Cheers, you're right. Thank you! My mistake.

...unless we bring out the famed...the feared...NUCLEAR SHILLELAGH

But yeah, I consider Lances to be easily refurbishable and returned to service. If they're even retired in this timeline, what with the USSR still surviving and all.

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