I was curious to calculate the probabilities of a roll with TN = 16, and to understand how Weary and Miserable affect the result.
To get some insight I wrote some simple code and run 100k simulations for each roll. This means that the results are close to the actual probability, even though there is still some fluctuation. 12 was counted as automatic success.
(I could have calculated the probability, but I like more a brute force approach to avoid errors)
Regular success table for a TN = 16
Now if a character is Weary, only 4,5,6 are counted on a success die.
As expected Weary starts to have an effect only when 2 or more dice are rolled, and the effect is greater than rolling one die less in regular conditions
Now, let´s have a look on how Miserable affect the results:
If we compare it to the Regular success table, Miserable has a negligible effect, and only when 4 or more dice are rolled
Finally, let´s see how Weary AND Miserable affect the results together:
The effect of Miserable is again almost negligible, unless you are rolling more than 6 dice.
Let me know what do you think about of this probabilities, and you are welcome to request other tables!