That’s not entirely true. There may only be a limited amount of gameplay experience so far, but some of us folks have already made use of the alpha rules for testing. That’s in no way enough experience to have a definitive feel for the game, but it’s also not nothing.
Point well made, I stand corrected.
With regard to your original response, the maths presented accounts for using hope to gain extra dice, as the maths is the same. Favoured is something I didn’t throw in, but off the top of my head you can just add 8% to each of those percentages if the roll is favoured. Advancement and any culture specific virtues aren’t really relevant to this since I was talking specifically about new characters. There are mitigations, but the variance in achievability of skills for a new character is probably the most drastic I have ever come across in a RPG. Not being able to use half your skills is no fun in my opinion.
Succeeding with skill rolls was very hard for beginning characters in 1st edition too.
In fact, for normal TN 14 tests, you had to have at least 2 ranks in a skill to have a non trivial chance of succeeding (barring Hope use, of course).
My players' first priority was always to get to Travel 2, or even better 3 because Travel was so fundamental to Journey rolls in 1st edition (thanks to the Vala for THAT change!).
Considering there seems to be many ways to alleviate this, I fail to see how it's worse than in 1st edition.