Thu 02 Jun 2022, 19:44
Opening back up this can of worms for 4e, as I've had some thoughts about Finland over the past few months. As a disclaimer, I'm from the states, so I'm going to refrain from making any declarative statements about how Finland would react to...well, just about anything.
Some of my notes:
4e canon doesn't really speak to Finland at all, other than the aforementioned line about Soviet tanks rushing across Finland. We know there are some Soviet forces in Sweden though, so presumably a few of the Soviets must have made it through Finland to get there (if not across the Baltic). We also know what those Soviet forces are in Sweden, which tells us about the forces nearby as well as something about FL's unit selection methodology. The 4e timeline demarcation from reality happens with the Gang of Eight coup, yes, but the Soviet Union doesn't really have the economy or financial capability to do much until at least '94. Thus, we know that other than the Soviet Union staying together, they were still in somewhat dire straights until their economy recovered. From that, we can gather that a lot of what happened in real life, probably still happened in the 4e timeline, at least until around '94.
With that all said, I can't imagine Finland would be too eager about Soviet tanks crossing their border. Whether that would make them allies with NATO I'm not one to say, but presumably they'd at least be anti-Soviet.
So that brings us to force structures. We know that FL used the GSFG almost entirely to represent the Soviet forces in Poland. In Sweden, there are elements from both the Baltic and Leningrad Military Districts, specifically the 1st GMRD from the 11th GCAA and the 131st MRD from the 6th CAA, along with support from the 76th Guards Airborne. That leaves a LOT of Soviet forces still in play in the north, any of whom (or all of whom) could be playing around in Finland if Finland were to go to full on war with the USSR (this could also explain some of the rest of Sweden's units no longer being around). Specifically, you have the rest of the units from the aforementioned 11th (3 more divs) and 6th (4 more divs) armies, but you also have available the 3rd and 144th GMRDs, the 107th and 153rd MRDs, as well as 26th Army Corps (3 divs) and 30th Guards Army Corps (3 divs), backed up by the 15th Air Army. And if that's still not enough, there are the Soviet forces available in the Moscow (1 division) and Belorussian (13 divisions) military districts, neither of which are terribly far away. At least some of those units are probably used in occupying roles in the Baltic nations, but there are still a lot of units to draw from for a conflict in Finland. Not only that, but since those units weren't deployed into Poland, I'd argue that they'd have to be engaged elsewhere, and I doubt Sweden would have been able to stand up to that level of firepower on their own.
For those of you that are Finnish or have an interest in this kind of thing, how do you think Finland would react to that level of opposition?
Last edited by
Heffe on Fri 03 Jun 2022, 20:33, edited 1 time in total.