Hi all,

I'm not understanding how the numbers for the third column of the Success Chance table (table 2.3 in the Quickstart Set) are derived. I'll take rolling one die as a simple example.

My interpretation of how the mechanics work makes me expect the probability of succeeding when rolling a one die, given that you intend to pray to an icon in the case of initial failure, to be equivalent to the probability of succeeding when rolling two dice (31% instead of 29%). My thinking is as follows: the only way to fail with a dice pool of one and when praying to an icon is to fail the first roll (with a 5/6 probability) and then failing still when rerolling that single die (again, with probability 5/6). The probability of these two independent results occurring is their product, 25/36. The probability of success is the complement of the probability of failing, so it should be 11/36, or approximately 31%.

In general this thought process makes me expect the probability of succeeding, given that you will pray to an icon in case of initial failure, to be equivalent to the probability of succeeding with a doubled dice pool.

What am I missing? Can anyone walk me through how the 29% probability is derived?

Thank you,

Jorge