A few thoughts:
(1) Consider a campaign around Bree. It's near the shire, so a good "next step" location. Has an intersection of two major roads. Lots of space for players to explore. Tales from Eriador
would seem to be a natural progression, if only it would come out in printed form. I have the PDF but haven't really looked into it much, but the first chapter of the adventure seems to start in Bree.
(2) The old Cubicle-7 AiME rules system had some excellent modules, and the Mirkwood
sourcebook jumps out at me as potentially a long-term campaign. The problem is that I don't know yet how to convert from one system to another. Both are 5E, so it sounds simple, but AiME goes from levels 1-20 and LotRR covers 1-10 so there is a scaling issue. What I would like to do (when I have time and/or think about it) is to look for common monsters such as orcs and see how they are statted out in both systems, with the hope that it would give me some sort of conversion model. I just keep forgetting to do it when I have both rulebooks handy.
(3) Moria will come out in the Spring, I believe, and that's a megadungeon just begging to be explored.
So, I think I would investigate moving the campaign into Bree and perhaps use the Eriador sourcebook, then move west into either Mirkwood or Moria. I think that's my general plan for my home campaign once I get it rolling.