Mon 31 Aug 2020, 14:20
160 tanks is still the lion's share of a full division's MBT complement ... not to be scoffed at, to my mind. And in the choice of equipping my forces with Leopard 2A4's or T-55's ... that's not even a choice. Even the AM upgrade was hardly on-par with Strv 102's, let alone the 104 — I'd be inclined to deem those 160 A4's would have been more than a match for those 2,000 T-55's. So, in a situation where NATO and national governments start looking at prioritising their defensive posture vs. the Pact, I'm not convinced Germany would be all that inclined to merely shrug its proverbial shoulders at letting those tanks go just like that, never mind the financial incentive. Same would go for the Americans ... whose "surplus" at that time, if any, mostly would have been M1's anyway and thus, with only a 105mm main armament, hardly interesting for Sweden.
Btw, as I think I've mentioned a couple of times, the procurement agreement for the Leopards was signed in 1994, long after the coup.
But as I've said, it all depends on what conditions are set for the scenario. I maintain that for the Moscow coup to be able to succeed, other things must have changed in the IRL timeline before August 1991. Just for instance, the Baltic Way manifestation of August 1989; an event not many who wasn't directly affected by it remember anymore, but which was earth shattering in its day — in many ways, a foreshadowing of what would happen months later. Did it happen in this timeline in the same way, or was it e.g. met with a hardline response by Soviet military acting without orders from the Kremlin?
There need to be some smaller indications here and there in the preceding history that pave the ground for the coup succeeding.
And for astute analysts, those indications would also prompt slightly different conclusions, leading to slightly different decisions further up the chain.
Even though the conditions are fundamentally different on many levels, the ongoing Zombie Apocalypse has shown Sweden that if the Government really thinks it's motivated, finding a few hundred billion for extraordinary investments is ... not impossible.
Within limits, you can always compress the development and delivery times of new hardware by investing at least 1.5x your compression factor in resources. The old adage being "we can make this good, fast, or cheap — choose any two". For instance, by running processes in parallel — e.g. by building the assembly lines already while development is still ongoing — you take normally sequential costs concurrently, but can cut final delivery times by several factors.
At the level of financing originally planned for it, I agree; the Strv 2000 wouldn't have been operational by 2000, let alone break of hostilities in 1997. But if Sweden finds itself motivated to switch onto a different track already in 1989 or 1990, or severely backtrack in 1991 — by investing a massive wad of dosh, I remain convinced they'd been able to field perhaps a division's worth of Strv 141's by 1997.
Last edited by
Vader on Tue 01 Sep 2020, 10:05, edited 2 times in total.
Before you use the word "XENOMORPH" again, you should read this article through:
https://www.wired.co.uk/article/aliens-throwaway-line-confusion