hsi379
Posts: 34
Joined: Fri 10 Sep 2021, 19:24

Re: How will you sort the problem with Councils?

Fri 04 Mar 2022, 01:21

Sorry if this sounds dumb but what exactly is the problem with Councils?
This is a good summary, essentially higher % to pass councils and skill endeavours that are supposed to be harder once you hit mid to high skill ranks. Or even warier via Hope and other bonus dice. Various easy ways to fix it, I like increasing successes required faster than resistance.

viewtopic.php?f=129&t=8509
There are various easy ways to fix the specific problem of high dice pools leading to easier probabilities for supposedly "harder" challenges, but I have yet to see a fix that has done all the math and has probabilities that make intuitive sense in general.

It's tricky because multiple rolls and extra successes for Tegwars just exagerate the dice pools issues. Adding and subtracting d6s are swingy for one roll as it is.

What are your house rules and the probability tables?
 
hsi379
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Joined: Fri 10 Sep 2021, 19:24

Re: How will you sort the problem with Councils?

Fri 04 Mar 2022, 01:32


I think systems like this or Skill Endeavours, or Extended Skill Rolls or Skill Challenges, in other games, suffer from not stating, in bold type, twice, that every roll should have the players state what they are doing and what they want to achieve by that, and that the GM MUST change the situation due after every skill roll, whether a failure or success.

That's where the drama comes from. Otherwise it's like having a battle without any talking or surprises.
Yes, this can't be emphasized enough. Players should be engaging in the fiction and the GM must introduce new fiction after each roll to introduce new circumstances which can make other skills more relevant and some skills less relevant. Also changing the "scene" after a certain number of rolls is also good technique -- so in a chase challenge maybe you are running though the city streets and have physical checks make senes to catchup but then the person you are chasing enters a large tavern so social skills become revelvant.

That said, the underlying math needs to be done and the GM should have an idea of what it is. Otherwise, it is very easy in these multiple role situations for the actual math to be disconnected from the fiction. It's not always intuitive and you can get trivially easy or impossible challenges when the GM thought they were setting up a "tough like 65% chance of success type challenge".

TOR 2e needs some house rules to fix the obvious math problems but also allow for some transparency on the odds so the Loremaster actually knows what kind of challenge they are actually putting forth.
 
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Harlath
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Re: How will you sort the problem with Councils?

Fri 04 Mar 2022, 13:02

There are various easy ways to fix the specific problem of high dice pools leading to easier probabilities for supposedly "harder" challenges, but I have yet to see a fix that has done all the math and has probabilities that make intuitive sense in general.

It's tricky because multiple rolls and extra successes for Tegwars just exagerate the dice pools issues. Adding and subtracting d6s are swingy for one roll as it is.

What are your house rules and the probability tables?
I increase successes required faster than I increase attempts allowed. Indeed, a good system may be just keeping attempts allowed flat. I like this approach as it means the existing rules framework is untouched, so Virtues/introduction step etc that boost number of attempts allowed still do their job. :)

Weighted probability of success (and indeed more than one success!) against TN 15 for Skill 3, 4 and 5 below.

- First number is number of successes, so a normal success is 1, adding a single 6 is 2 etc. That's why the first set (skill 3) caps out at 4 (3 6s plus a success for passing the roll) and can't hit 5 successes on a single roll. 0 is failing the roll!
- Second number is probability of getting that outcome. You've got a 4.91% chance to fail TN15 at 5 Skill.
- Third number is weighted successes, just successes multiplied by probability.
- Then at the end we check everything adds to 100% and the weighted successes per roll. Underling that increasing rolls allowed and successes 1:1 means thinks breakdown at higher skill levels, harder tasks are actually easier!

[Edit: too lazy to do formatting properly here so just pasted info to Google sheets where it is hopefully more readable! https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing]

TN 15
Skill 3 Weighted successes
0 38.04% 0
1 28.97% 0.29
2 25.93% 0.52
3 6.60% 0.20
4 0.46% 0.02
5 0.00% 0
100% 1.02

TN 15
Skill 4 Weighted successes
0 16.07% 0
1 35.36% 0.3536
2 35.42% 0.7084
3 11.54% 0.3462
4 1.54% 0.0616
5 0.08% 0.004
100% 1.47

TN 15
Skill 5 Weighted successes
0 4.91% 0
1 35.95% 0.3595
2 39.51% 0.7902
3 16.08% 0.4824
4 3.22% 0.1288
5 0.33% 0.0165
100% 1.78
 
hsi379
Posts: 34
Joined: Fri 10 Sep 2021, 19:24

Re: How will you sort the problem with Councils?

Fri 04 Mar 2022, 20:33

There are various easy ways to fix the specific problem of high dice pools leading to easier probabilities for supposedly "harder" challenges, but I have yet to see a fix that has done all the math and has probabilities that make intuitive sense in general.

It's tricky because multiple rolls and extra successes for Tegwars just exagerate the dice pools issues. Adding and subtracting d6s are swingy for one roll as it is.

What are your house rules and the probability tables?
I increase successes required faster than I increase attempts allowed. Indeed, a good system may be just keeping attempts allowed flat. I like this approach as it means the existing rules framework is untouched, so Virtues/introduction step etc that boost number of attempts allowed still do their job. :)

Weighted probability of success (and indeed more than one success!) against TN 15 for Skill 3, 4 and 5 below.

- First number is number of successes, so a normal success is 1, adding a single 6 is 2 etc. That's why the first set (skill 3) caps out at 4 (3 6s plus a success for passing the roll) and can't hit 5 successes on a single roll. 0 is failing the roll!
- Second number is probability of getting that outcome. You've got a 4.91% chance to fail TN15 at 5 Skill.
- Third number is weighted successes, just successes multiplied by probability.
- Then at the end we check everything adds to 100% and the weighted successes per roll. Underling that increasing rolls allowed and successes 1:1 means thinks breakdown at higher skill levels, harder tasks are actually easier!

[Edit: too lazy to do formatting properly here so just pasted info to Google sheets where it is hopefully more readable! https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing]

TN 15
Skill 3 Weighted successes
0 38.04% 0
1 28.97% 0.29
2 25.93% 0.52
3 6.60% 0.20
4 0.46% 0.02
5 0.00% 0
100% 1.02

TN 15
Skill 4 Weighted successes
0 16.07% 0
1 35.36% 0.3536
2 35.42% 0.7084
3 11.54% 0.3462
4 1.54% 0.0616
5 0.08% 0.004
100% 1.47

TN 15
Skill 5 Weighted successes
0 4.91% 0
1 35.95% 0.3595
2 39.51% 0.7902
3 16.08% 0.4824
4 3.22% 0.1288
5 0.33% 0.0165
100% 1.78
I don't follow. Are these individual rolls? Individual rolls are not the whole story of course. I was the OP on the thread you mentioned.

When you say "successes required faster than I increase attempts allowed" what are you using for "easier", "medium", and "hard" values?

So if the orginal is:
3 successes in 3 rolls, 6 successes in 6 rolls, 9 successes in 9 rolls

What are you using? For example -- 3 successes in 3 rolls, 6 successes in 4 rolls, 9 successes in 5 rolls?

And do you have the equivalent tables like in the other thread?

I'm been meaning to run some options myself but haven't had the time lately.

In the other thread fahrgast posted a solution based on setting Tolerance so:
3,6,9 successes before 0,1,2 failures which corrects the outright broken math but not sure the numbers are great in terms success and hinges too much on the introduction roll.

Sorry for pushing, but I really want to figure out a good alternative with transparent math. Thanks.
 
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Harlath
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Re: How will you sort the problem with Councils?

Sat 05 Mar 2022, 18:33

Apologies for the delay was busy working and parenting.

"I don't follow. Are these individual rolls? Individual rolls are not the whole story of course. I was the OP on the thread you mentioned."
The above is for an individual roll, not the whole council/Skill Endeavours. This post focuses on the whole council/endeavour.

"When you say "successes required faster than I increase attempts allowed" what are you using for "easier", "medium", and "hard" values?"
I'm often keeping attempts allowed at 4 and then adjusting Resitance (successes needed) alone for easy/medium/hard. Much easier when you just move one variable! Virtues or introduction rolls can shift attempts allowed too. One of the strength of this approach is that you don't need to chance other things in the rules!

Just brute forcing this in Excel as I'm busy and only did just over 5k rolls because I'm lazy... May try to do something better/more formal at some point, as results jump around by a few hundred basis points each time I run it.

First column is resistance, second is how many of 5095 endeavours attempted succeeded, third column is % of each total endeavours that succeed.

As you can see, scaling up successes required while keeping attempted allowed flat avoid some of the mathematical oddity of other options.

You could smooth this out a bit by increasing attempt allowed faster than successes required, while still increasing both (rather than keeping attempts allowed flat).

Now you know something with resistance 6 is pretty tough (c23% chance to success with 3d) but the PCs will have a decent shot if they find an ally/spend hope and have 4d (58% chance of success) or do both (82% chance of Success). Naturally if you're big damn heroes you don't need to spend hope or make commitments to an ally to get their 1d help (or go on a side quest for it etc), you're at 82% chance of success already!

Hope this helps and apologies all if I've botched any of the maths. As noted, done quickly in Excel (via Match,RAND and probability tables I'd done in Anydice for chances of 0,1,2,3,4,5 successes on different dice pools).

All done with 4 rolls allowed.

Resistance Endeavours achieved
3 4009 79% 3D
4 3099 61%
5 2136 42%
6 1197 23%

3 4910 96% 4D
4 4585 90%
5 3919 77%
6 2974 58%
7 1877 37%
8 1018 20%

3 5091 100% 5D
4 5033 99%
5 4808 94%
6 4174 82%
7 3194 63%
8 2057 40%
9 1117 22%at
 
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miguelaco
Posts: 22
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Re: How will you sort the problem with Councils?

Mon 07 Mar 2022, 00:26

Hi, I hope I'm not late to the party. I've been running my own simulation and got slightly different results. I think it may be related to the introduction phase, where a good roll can increase the time limit for the company. I've taken this into account and here are my results for resistance 3, 6 & 9, with different skill levels and setting the time limit to 4 in all cases:

3 success dice:
-------------------------------------------------
Resistance: 3
-------------------------------------------------
failures: 1747 (17.470001%)
successes: 8253 (82.529999%)

-------------------------------------------------
Resistance: 6
-------------------------------------------------
failures: 6951 (69.510002%)
successes: 3049 (30.490000%)

-------------------------------------------------
Resistance: 9
-------------------------------------------------
failures: 9594 (95.940002%)
successes: 406 (4.060000%)

4 success dice:
-------------------------------------------------
Resistance: 3
-------------------------------------------------
failures: 183 (1.830000%)
successes: 9817 (98.169998%)

-------------------------------------------------
Resistance: 6
-------------------------------------------------
failures: 2989 (29.890001%)
successes: 7011 (70.110001%)

-------------------------------------------------
Resistance: 9
-------------------------------------------------
failures: 7693 (76.930000%)
successes: 2307 (23.070000%)

5 success dice:
-------------------------------------------------
Resistance: 3
-------------------------------------------------
failures: 11 (0.110000%)
successes: 9989 (99.889999%)

-------------------------------------------------
Resistance: 6
-------------------------------------------------
failures: 957 (9.570001%)
successes: 9043 (90.430000%)

-------------------------------------------------
Resistance: 9
-------------------------------------------------
failures: 5215 (52.149998%)
successes: 4785 (47.850002%)

Hope it helps. I think your change looks good according to numbers.
 
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Harlath
Posts: 597
Joined: Sun 19 Jul 2020, 10:40

Re: How will you sort the problem with Councils?

Mon 07 Mar 2022, 09:23

Hi, I hope I'm not late to the party. I've been running my own simulation and got slightly different results. I think it may be related to the introduction phase, where a good roll can increase the time limit for the company. I've taken this into account and here are my results for resistance 3, 6 & 9, with different skill levels and setting the time limit to 4 in all cases:

Hope it helps. I think your change looks good according to numbers.
That's very helpful, cheers!

I am indeed skipping the introduction step (not part of skill endeavours, but an important boost from councils, particularly if you unlock extra attempts via a 6 or two, which you've got a decent shot at with the dices pools we're using here).

Don't think you are late to the party at all. This stuff might even be useful to the designers as I've asked about this issue in the FAQ and in a Q&A with Francesco recently where he acknowledged the issue. :)
 
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Harlath
Posts: 597
Joined: Sun 19 Jul 2020, 10:40

Re: How will you sort the problem with Councils?

Mon 07 Mar 2022, 09:23

Hi, I hope I'm not late to the party. I've been running my own simulation and got slightly different results. I think it may be related to the introduction phase, where a good roll can increase the time limit for the company. I've taken this into account and here are my results for resistance 3, 6 & 9, with different skill levels and setting the time limit to 4 in all cases:

Hope it helps. I think your change looks good according to numbers.
That's very helpful, cheers!

I am indeed skipping the introduction step (not part of skill endeavours, but an important boost from councils, particularly if you unlock extra attempts via a 6 or two, which you've got a decent shot at with the dices pools we're using here).

Don't think you are late to the party at all. This stuff might even be useful to the designers as I've asked about this issue in the FAQ and in a Q&A with Francesco recently where he acknowledged the issue with characteristic thoughtfulness. :)
 
Stubbazubba
Posts: 11
Joined: Sat 29 Jan 2022, 09:43

Re: How will you sort the problem with Councils?

Tue 08 Mar 2022, 10:05

I've been toying with the following alternative Time Limit:

Resistance is set as normal, and then the Introduction is rolled as normal. The Time Limit is not based on the Resistance, but rather on the party and the audience. It is 2 + the highest Valour/Wisdom (audience's preference) among the party members introduced + 1 per tengwar in successful Introduction. This is a throwback to 1e's rules for Tolerance, where the baseline Tolerance was based on the highest Valour or Wisdom depending on the culture/outlook of the audience.

A beginning party's Time Limit, then, is 3(+tengwar). The Time Limit grows as the party advances, such that later Councils have up to 8(+tengwar). An inexperienced party simply cannot demand of Elu Thingol his only daughter's hand in marriage and expect it to go well. But a renowned hero gets special deference in council among the Free Peoples of Middle-earth, and folk will treat with them far longer than a company of lesser reputation. A starting out party will simply not be able to confidently make large requests of people and should aim for lesser asks (though a Loremaster should generously use the Success with Woe option in those cases where a bigger ask is necessary but just barely doesn't succeed). I do recommend generous use of gifts to sweeten the Introduction roll (+1d for a decent gift, +2d for something exquisite or culturally meaningful) as another mitigation measure.

I need to run the numbers (and I'm honestly not sure how to do so, since I've no programming ability and I haven't figured out how to calculate TOR probabilities in anydice or Excel yet). I do fear that it's double dipping a little bit to get both a higher Time Limit and more skill dice as you gain experience, but I want to see the math before I decide how much that bothers me, because the Time Limit reflecting the values of the audience is a good flourish that I like.

The other issue I have/see with Councils is the prospect of 9+ skill checks with little to no guidance on how to keep those checks fresh or interesting. From the outset, there are easily optimized solutions to a static game where the Resistance and all the TNs are known in advance. Disallowing/penalizing repeated checks might nominally increase the diversity of skills used, but it doesn't make it much more interesting, it just means you have to calculate the next best choice, as well. There just has to be some hidden information, or at least something that delays or changes the optimal approach and ways to discover it in the game's abstraction.

My answer to that is Objections. An Objection is a reason why the audience is resisting, and certain appeals will work better or worse against certain Objections. For an Objection to be fully resolved it takes 3 successes, enough time and persuasion for the audience to consider, synthesize, and accept your points. Think about the audience and what drives them, and then pick an Objection (or 2 or 3 in the case of bold or outrageous requests, respectivey):
  • Proud: The audience resents that the player-heroes have, at least in the audience's mind, undermined their position or decision making. Attempts to Enhearten come off as patronizing and take -1d, while attempts to flatter using Riddle take +1d
  • Cowardly: The audience greatly fears the physical consequences to themselves or others of the requested action. Attempts at subtlety using Riddle take -1d, while attempts to encourage using Enhearten take +1d.
  • Covetous: The audience covets their possessions or power and grasps for more. Attempts to build understanding through Insight take -1d, while attempts to Persuade them of the gain that will come to them take +1d.
  • Despairing: The audience is convinced that all efforts will come to naught and whatever opportunity may have existed is now passed. Attempts to logically change their reasoning by Persuade take -1d, while attempts to rekindle hope through Song take +1d.
  • Mistrusting: The audience feels isolated, that none should be trusted, most especially the player-heroes. Attempts to reason with Persuade take -1d, while attempts to build rapport with Insight gain +1d.
  • Aloof: The audience feels nothing the player-heroes have to say is much of their concern, they are content that they will be unaffected by whatever the trouble is. Attempts to draw parallels to ancient tales in Song take -1d, while attempts to emphasize the connection of the party's errand to the audience using Persuade take +1d.
This list isn't exhaustive, but just examples of the kinds of Objections, you could spin out many more. "But stubbazubba," you say, "won't bold and especially outrageous request Councils have conflicting Objections that cancel each other out or double up?" The easiest way to avoid that is to just do them sequentially: Have the audience resist based on one Objection first, then their second, then, if applicable, their third. These Objections may not always be obvious, and I would definitely allow a successful Insight check with a tengwar to hint at their current motivation to oppose and what may or may not help currently.

But these are also good role-play prompts for the LM: Chiding the player-heroes for their disrespect indicates a different Objection than doing so for their hubris or their foolhardiness. And when they have resolved 1, either the Council ends or the next one takes over. The players have to try to figure out what their new Objection is and what strategies would be more or less effective in addressing it. And when the Time Limit is run out, the LM knows which Objection ended up overruling the party's arguments and can have the audience offer a Success w/ Woe like a steep counter-offer that is appropriate.

I don't think this is really changing anything in the RAW, it's just systematizing what LMs will have to do anyway, and just so happens to encourage a wider variety of skills.
 
hsi379
Posts: 34
Joined: Fri 10 Sep 2021, 19:24

Re: How will you sort the problem with Councils?

Wed 09 Mar 2022, 05:21

All done with 4 rolls allowed.

Resistance Endeavours achieved
3 4009 79% 3D
4 3099 61%
5 2136 42%
6 1197 23%

3 4910 96% 4D
4 4585 90%
5 3919 77%
6 2974 58%
7 1877 37%
8 1018 20%

3 5091 100% 5D
4 5033 99%
5 4808 94%
6 4174 82%
7 3194 63%
8 2057 40%
9 1117 22%at

Thanks!!

I get slightly different numbers using python code but close enough for now I think!

You can easily scale this up to 8 total rolls and 12 total rolls. Or more generally 1 x party members, 2 x party members, 3 x party members to represent 1, 2, 3 rounds of checks. So for a party of 4 -- 4, 8, or 12 rolls.

In general, I only like to use Councils / Skill Endeavors when the entire party should be involved. So I think about say "3 rounds of skill checks where each PC gets 1 check"

I'll have to play with the different parameters, but I do really like having the rolls set and the successes as the variable.

Will have to think about the Introduction as well. As is, I think it is too easy to to get a lot of extra rounds -- likely someone will have a high intro skill and you are almost always going to spend hope since this would have such a big effect.

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