Forum

[...]

This was of course pure fantasy. That weapon was never going to be a real contender for replacing the Ak 4, for oh-so-many reasons (and indeed, nor did it; anywhere close - in the end, it was a local modified version of the FNC, manufactured under license, that became the new Ak 5).

For the new edition however, [...].

Interesting point. I think, we must remember how sparse on information the 1980s and 1990s were, especially when it came to items of military and procurement. A lot of red tape, very few open sources in libraries etc. and of course: no internet. The sheer amount of time saved by using a good search engine and some (post) modern research skills is astonishing, when compared to what was necessary to obtain information during the Cold War era. I might be preaching to the choir here, but people forget fast and newer players wouldn't even know.

[...]

This was of course pure fantasy. That weapon was never going to be a real contender for replacing the Ak 4, for oh-so-many reasons (and indeed, nor did it; anywhere close - in the end, it was a local modified version of the FNC, manufactured under license, that became the new Ak 5).

For the new edition however, [...].

Interesting point. I think, we must remember how sparse on information the 1980s and 1990s were, especially when it came to items of military and procurement. A lot of red tape, very few open sources in libraries etc. and of course: no internet. The sheer amount of time saved by using a good search engine and some (post) modern research skills is astonishing, when compared to what was necessary to obtain information during the Cold War era. I might be preaching to the choir here, but people forget fast and newer players wouldn't even know.

.
Indeed.

But perspectives also differed on either side of the Pond.
I told Marc at the time that the Interdynamics wouldn't be the new Ak 5, but (a) he said he felt the weapon was "interesting" enough to merit a bit of artistic license, and (b) the book was already in print...

So in the 'Cold war continues' scenario, with no cuts to the (West) German army, there likely wouldn't be any surplus Leo A4s.(Hence no such vehicle as Strv 121)
What options would have been able in that case?
Retaining the Strv103?
Upgrades to the Centurion/Strv104?
Early acquisition of the Strv 122?
Other?

The Strv 121 (almost baseline Leopard 2A4) were bought in 1994 from former Bundeswehr stock. In an alternate universe, where the 1991 Soviet August Coup would have succeeded, it is unlikely that the Bundeswehr would have freed up any Leopard 2 for foreign sales. But production of Leopard 2 (then only in the A4 variant) ceased in 1992. Had the Swedish government decided to buy the Leopard 2 not in 1993, but a bit earlier (e. g. in response to resurgent aggressions by the USSR), it might have been able to buy newly built Leopard 2A4 in 1993 or 1994.

This deal would have been similar to the one the Swiss Army got, when they bought the Leopard 2A4 as Panzer 87. Though the Swiss got A4 from the fifth production batch and Sweden would have been able to by the latest, eighth batch. Essentially, the Leopard 2A4 became the new Leopard 1 or "euro tank" as numerous NATO and EU allies bought A4, A5 and A6 models from 1994 (Sweden), 1996 (Austria), 1997 (Denmark) until the 2000s. Then international customers, mainly from Asia, started buying Leopards like crazy.

Don't forget that the purchase of the Strv 122 was for licence production... not import.

So, while the first 29 tanks were built in Germany, the rest were built in Sweden under licence.

The 121, however, I don't know... they were all leased, not bought... so... depends on if the Germans would have been willing to part with them or not.

This whole question has so many moving parts — and I really hope Fria Ligan are taking a good, deep think in considering them all and how they interlink, when drafting the background scenario...


First — Cause:

The major point of divergence from real-world history is stated to be the success of the coup in August 1991.
By then, Germany is reunited since almost a year back, and in the real world, the Warsaw Pact has been formally dissolved for almost two months, and the Soviet Union had relinquished supreme command of Pact forces several months earlier. Many of the Communist regimes in Eastern Europe forming the Pact had fallen.

But the success of that coup shouldn't just occur in a vacuum, I feel — it wasn't a roll-of-the-dice situation that just as easily might have come out the other way; there were very good reasons why the coup failed at the time.

So, for the coup to have succeeded, there should be subtle differences also in the history of the world preceding the coup. Does this mean that the local Communist regimes have taken a more hardline approach in quelling the popular uprisings after DDR's "failure", and that the Warsaw Pact is still around?
How is the coup able to succeed?

And if the background scenario doesn't stop the Pact's dissolution — what does the GKChP do about it, once they've taken control?
I have difficulty envisioning the Soviet Union going into the "Twilight War" without the Pact...


Second — Effect:

What do governments in the West do in response to the events in the Soviet Union, where they IRL immediately saw an opportunity to make reductions and cutbacks in military spending?

Specifically, for this setting, what does the Swedish Right-Wing government — and most particularly, Anders Björck — do? I believe we may assume that instead of looking to build a "smaller but sharper" defence with "more bang for the (reduced) buck", procurement projects will instead be increased, boosted, and accelerated. Rbs 23 will be bought and introduced, for instance. There will be a greater number of more capable Gripens. Bas 90 will be fully expanded. Infantry units will be mechanised instead of disbanded. And so on.

But what does this imply for, for instance, the new MBT?

To recap from the first page, Sweden IRL decided to depart from its standing defence procurement policy from the Cold War (that critical systems should not be dependant of non-domestic suppliers), and made the decision to not go forward with the development of the Strv 141 (a.k.a. "Stridsvagn 2000"), but instead to have a competition between a number of foreign manufacturers, where the Leopard 2 Improved (not A5 or A6) eventually emerged as the clear winner; the formal procurement for 120 tanks (91 to be built locally on license) being signed in 1994.
As deliveries couldn't start until 1996, the deal also included 160 surplus Bundeswehr A4's on lease as a stopgap; these were delivered the same year the contract was signed.

So, with the Cold War heating up instead of blowing over ... how does that affect this timeline?

Will Sweden again see the wisdom of the established SOP vis-à-vis procurement, and accelerate the development of Strv 141?
But in that case; the existing MBT's — Strv 103 and 104 — were hopelessly outdated, and impossible to upgrade to meet the requirements of the modern battlefield. Some other stopgap would be required ... but what would that be?
Other European countries would all of a sudden most likely not have a lot of surplus to spare, and many takers for anything they did have. Krauss-Maffei would probably be prioritising its production capacity for arming its domestic army, as would Vickers, GIAT, Chrysler, and others.
So, would Sweden even have any choice but to go forward with Strv 141, as fast as possible? (The shooting war breaking out in 1997 would certainly give them time to do so.)

Or will Sweden be able to stitch together some kind of a deal anyway, with Germany? (Or with someone else — would the competition staged IRL even have been possible in this altered scenario?)
And in that case, assuming that we wouldn't have been able to get the surplus A4, but went straight to the "Swedish Imp" (which then btw would have carried the designation "Strv 121" in service) ... we must assume that the IRL 1996-2002 delivery schedule would have been considerably accelerated...

And this is still just scratching the surface...

Any way you look at it though; with the drastically altered background conditions, it'll take more than just a few tweaks here and there from real-world history to make the setting feel solid and believable.

I haven’t been able to figure out the intent of the Swedish setting. Does anyone know? Is it supposed to be an integrated part of the adventure or as an example of how to place scenarios in other countries? Will the scenarios be written in a way that they can be placed in either country? Will maps, names, adversarys and allies be presented for both countries or is it up to the referee to rework the whole scenario? If the ”Black Madonna” stretch goal is reached, will it be rewritten to also fit the Swedish setting? Because a religious symbol to rally people just don’t strike me as particulary swedish.
I hope Free League don’t just provide a map of a part of Sweden and call it a day, but rather produce the scenarios to the specific setting, now when they have made a statement of providing this setting.

I haven’t been able to figure out the intent of the Swedish setting. Does anyone know? Is it supposed to be an integrated part of the adventure or as an example of how to place scenarios in other countries? Will the scenarios be written in a way that they can be placed in either country? Will maps, names, adversarys and allies be presented for both countries or is it up to the referee to rework the whole scenario? If the ”Black Madonna” stretch goal is reached, will it be rewritten to also fit the Swedish setting? Because a religious symbol to rally people just don’t strike me as particulary swedish.
I hope Free League don’t just provide a map of a part of Sweden and call it a day, but rather produce the scenarios to the specific setting, now when they have made a statement of providing this setting.

.
That really is The Question, isn't it?

I hope it's a fully fleshed-out, standalone setting on par with the "classic" Central European; showing a very different front of a larger pan-European war.

I fear it's just a "re-skin", like the American setting of their "Tales from the Loop"; with the exact same content, just having Swedish names in parentheses and a Swedish map to place the events on.

There has been a lot of talk about several serving and former US military personnel and Polish partners working on the Central European setting as consultants, but I have not seen any indications that Fria Ligan are employing any expertise whatsoever, beyond their in-house staff's own experiences from mandatory service, to make the Swedish setting.

This has me worried, quite frankly.

I didn't know about the Strv 141 before: I've learnt something - Thank you!

And having looked it up on the internet, if 1st Ed T2K could have the LAV-75, I think 4th Ed should have the Strv 141.

I didn't know about the Strv 141 before: I've learnt something - Thank you!

And having looked it up on the internet, if 1st Ed T2K could have the LAV-75, I think 4th Ed should have the Strv 141.

.
You're welcome — we live to serve!

And I agree. Having hardware like the Strv 141 and the CBJ MS (a bit early; as a "Kpist m/96" or sth) in the Swedish setting would give it a nice, but not unrealistic, twist.

Anyway, it seems to me (the image's resolution sets some limits, I'm afraid) that a great number of towns of various sizes in Västergötland are shown as rubble, while in Östergötland and most other parts of the map, towns seem essentially intact.

My theory:
Västergötland is the basing area for two thirds of Attackeskadern which hade peacetime bases in Skövde and Karlsborg. The attack Wing (not sure of the translation of 'Eskader') of the Air Force was nicknamed "ÖB:s klubba" ("The supreme commander's club") because the chain of command goes from ÖB, not from the chief of the Air Force. A very important asset for Sweden.

Its main task was anti-shipping operations, so Soviet would very much like to destroy it. On the ground if possible.

AJ37 Viggen with 2 RB 04 anti-ship missiles:



Info in Swedish: https://sv.wikipedia.org/wiki/Första_flygeskadern


It also makes sense for Soviet to destroy ports in the west of Sweden to prevent their use for reinforcements and supplies from west. The ports on the east coast were needed by themselves. Except for the SAAB facilities in Linköping , the towns in Östergötland have little strategic value. Oxelösund was an important port.

My theory:
Västergötland is the basing area for two thirds of Attackeskadern which hade peacetime bases in Skövde and Karlsborg. The attack Wing (not sure of the translation of 'Eskader') of the Air Force was nicknamed "ÖB:s klubba" ("The supreme commander's club") because the chain of command goes from ÖB, not from the chief of the Air Force. A very important asset for Sweden.

[...]

It also makes sense for Soviet to destroy ports in the west of Sweden to prevent their use for reinforcements and supplies from west. The ports on the east coast were needed by themselves. Except for the SAAB facilities in Linköping , the towns in Östergötland have little strategic value. Oxelösund was an important port.

.
You say Skövde, but I assume you mean Såtenäs (F7)?

You have some interesting thoughts there! But note that Karlsborg is one of the towns shown as not destroyed. (Såtenäs is too small to be seen on the map, so we have no information).

(Lovely picture, BTW!)