Fri 21 Aug 2026, 07:52
If you want 5-6 rounds, 2D, dropping one die per facehugger, should be about right... but anything from 2 rouds to about 18 is within "statistically not unlikely" - 1 in 36 times it will be 1 round. 10/36 will be reduce by a die.
1d is of course 1/6 chance.
You can't "dial it in" to 5-6 rounds tightly using the 1 in 6 chance.
The odds of X rolls to go off on 1d:
1 roll 1/6
2 rolls 5/36. (the 5/6 of not on roll 1 and the 1/6 of round 2)
3 rolls 25/216 (the 5²/6² of two fails, and the 1/6 of 1 hit)
4 rolls 125/1296 (and so on)
5 rolls 625/7776
6 rolls 3125/46656
So odds of 1d making it to 5 rolls or 6... due to the sequencing issue and the long tail issue, it continues to get thinner and thinner.
The odds of resolving at either 5 or 6 but not earlier are about 6875/46656 or about 15%... and the odds of it going off in rounds 1-4 are about 671/1296, just about 52% so, half the time, it's under 5. and about 35% it's over 6 rolls...
2d gets far uglier, because of the branching in permutations but given the 10/36 chance of dropping to 1d and the 1/36 of ending it's about 2 extra rounds... I'm not redoing the math overall, but 1/36 times, it's one roll to done, 10/36 it's reduce to 1d, and 25/36 it's 2d next roll
If instead simply reducing the timing pool by 1d if any trigger (but only one less die), 2d gets easier
1 roll 11/36
2 rolls 275/1296
3 rolls 6875/46696
Then into 1d odds for the remainder
You can't get a simple answer for "dice for 5-6 rounds"... but the odds of "1-6 rounds on 1d is about 67% of the time"
I'd personally set 1d and hope... as 5 rolls or more is less than half the time.
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