I encourage anyone to try to replicate this and/or verify so we know that it’s correct. I am not 100% sure but think it’s close.
Here’s the results I got for TN14-16 and 2S-4S dice pools. Resistance is across the top. +1 means an extra roll (from good introduction, etc.). So 6+1 means chance of getting 6 successes in 7 rolls.
TN16
Code: Select all
3 3+1 3+2 6 6+1 6+2 9 9+1 9+2
2S 17 27 37 7 12 17 0.03 5 8
3S 52 70 82 48 62 73 45 56 67
4S 83 94 98 88 95 98 92 96 98
TN15
Code: Select all
3 3+1 3+2 6 6+1 6+2 9 9+1 9+2
2S 23 36 48 12 19 27 7 11 5
3S 61 79 89 59 73 83 59 71 80
4S 88 97 99 93 98 99 96 98 99
TN14
Code: Select all
3 3+1 3+2 6 6+1 6+2 9 9+1 9+2
2S 31 46 60 20 29 40 13 20 27
3S 69 86 94 70 83 91 72 82 90
4S 92 98 99.7 96 99 99.7 98 99 99.8
So roughly (because the shifts are not completely symmetric and things get wonky at 4S+ and where the probability is very high):
• Change in TN = ~5-10%
• Extra round = ~10-20%
• Change in # die (on every roll) = ~30-40%
• Change in “difficulty” (reasonable to bold request) = +/- 3 total tries with adjusted success target = wonky. With 3S+ dice it is negligible or actually easier to do longer challenges.
Some thoughts:
• Because of bonus successes from Tengwars, shift in dice pool is a lot more important than TNs
• Shifting from a 3 resistance to a 9 resistance challenge doesn’t really track to the description (reasonable vs. outrageous request) as it can be harder but not massively so. And as you get higher dice pools, it may actually be easier to do an Outrageous Request than a Reasonable Request (more chances for extra success for 9 rolls and less chance of failure per roll)! Clearly not intended
• Success rates are so low for 2S pools, you need to get that extra dice somehow (use hope on a lot of rolls, friendly audience) for any reasonable chance of success
• While 3S pools look like decent odds at first, if the Party gets a good introduction (often likely) and/or uses resources (hope) they can move the odds up to almost guaranteed (4S results) success unless they are penalized a dice
• 4S pools become trivial unless penalized a dice, and even that can return to trivial by using resources. 5S+ seem to be auto success unless penalized multiple dice
Overall, this is a little disappointing as the “sweet spot” of results seem fairly narrow, and the official tools to tweak are not very granular. Likely, I will house rule this heavily before use.
Prove me wrong (I wouldn’t mind)! Discuss!