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I've followed the development of the rules with interest, from the first slipcase edition, then Revised, Cubicle 7:s snippets of information for their version of 2e and now the Free League version and what we know about the changed rules from the kickstarter, Q&A and actual play with Francesco clarifying. We've played since 2013, our campaign are closing in on a hundred sessions.

One thing that has been very clear with TOR is that skill rolls (for common skills, not addressing combat here) are not much of an issue as soon as you've been through your first adventures. The target number (TN) of 14 is easy to reach as soon as you have 3 levels in the appropriate skill. With the Feat die added to that the medium roll lets you reach TN 14 without additional use of Hope or other effects. As soon as your skill level reaches 4 and beyond (5 or 6) it's almost impossible to fail; for the heroes in my campaign it' a matter of how well they succeed, not if they'll succeed. A result less than Greater is considered a failure at our table, almost. Being Weary can change that sometimes, and is a feared state, but it's a rare condition that affects maybe one in ten rolls. You can always raise the TN as a LM, but 16 or even 18 doesn't change this fact much. Nothing wrong with that, and I am of the opinion that players should succeed most of the time, but the effect is that players succeed on every roll, almost never accrue shadow points (an effect that comes with high Wisdom), never needs to use their Hope etc.

And, with additional changes coming up, it seems that skill rolls will be even easier to succeed on. The change from TN 14 to TN (18-attribute level) will lower the TN somewhat, to 13-14 for standard attribute values, if 14 remains the sum of a heroic culture's three attribute numbers. Upon that we will have Favoured rolls (the feat die rolled twice), a mechanic that has existed in some forms already but seems to be more common. Even easier will the rolls be with the addition of an extra die from invoking a Trait. Finally Hope will add 1-2 dice (before the roll instead of adding attribute value after the roll). So far there have been no mentions of preliminary rolls (those exist in 1e, padding's bonus dice before Journeys, Encounters or Battles) but those could possibly add even more dice.

Don't get me wrong, I love the game and I'm very excited for 2e, but a feel there's a risk of inflation in the dice added to a skill roll, while the TN is the same or even lower than before. Skill roll should be challenging even for more experienced heroes, not only for complete beginners. Reading what I have so far, I have some concerns about how the new additions will make skill rolls too easy for characters with some xp under their belts.

My players haven't advanced to a point where anything is too easy to do, but I like to utilize fear and corruption tests often to keep my group psychologically and spiritually strained, so there's always tension. I suspect that I'll be doing something similar with favoured/ill-favoured rolls, and exploiting every opportunity I can (within the bounds of fun) to keep my players at some kind of disadvantage.

I agree - I have been wondering the same and hope that I don't have to keep adding difficulty modifiers to the TN to challenge my players.

Because the way dice result distribution works, the impact once you get the third die (on a TN14) really improve your odds of success, compared to roll 2d6. I guess this is going to be the sweet spot. Players with two skills trying to gather a 3rd die, from hope, traits or other sources. Once you get the third die, getting the 4th is really good against difficult tasks or to guarantee success (Which was kind of the rule for traits in 1e anyway). I guess the game gets a little broken on the 4th skill level, when the character rarely will need hope or trait to be successful, but I don't think a character lives or adventures long enough to have more than 2 skills with 4 grades, but this is game preference, there should be at least an clear message on the game (retirement rules) for when the game recommends retirement. Like, for every 10AP the expects the character to have 1 permanent shadow point, so that XAP the character should retire.

I do wonder if the addition of ageing rules would add some meaningful compensation to target rolls here. or at least enough to start bringing in an element of doubt to those characters who have reached a high level of common skill ability. It's the risk or element of uncertainty that makes the game exciting for me (as much as it's frustrating to roll two 1's and a 2 on my three skill dice and a 1 on the feat dice). Perhaps the effect of wounded should begin to accumulate and take a toll?

My impression of the game so far having played as a PC where at the most a campaign has seen my characters age about 3-4 years is to carry on as though immortal. But if I had a character that had completed much more of the Darkening of Mirkwood campaign (30+ years in total) it would be interesting to speculate on the RP narrative of ageing and the choices that PC would make. For example you have all the interest of accumulating skills and their development but what about managing their gradual decline and legacy?

For example strength could start to decrease after a certain age (perhaps on the favoured scores first) - or making strength bonuses less predictable (the body not being able to live up to expectations at critical times). And if that all sounds a little too punitive toward the races of men - perhaps for Dwarves and Elves they get to a certain age and become much more interested in a return to study and lore and consolidating what they have learnt of Middle Earth before they leave it than wandering (very much canon I think given Legolas's attraction toward the sea and westward). Or for Elves especially they have periods of adventuring and then study. The lure of the books condition...! Or the lure of the smithy for Dwarves or because they are just that bit more inclined to be culturally introverted!

Well, if each year is composed of 3 sessions, and each session grants on average 4 AP. By the end of the third year you should have received about 36AP. This is enough to increase 3 skills from 2 to 3.

I definitely agree with you, but on my groups I have to admit that advancements were on the 1-2 per session at most. So we were not experiencing the same. Either way, I think getting a second and third skill is to cheap too, as the impact of getting a success with this additional dice is greatly improved.

I don't worry about this at all, for a few reasons:

1. Sure, each hero individually may get a bunch of skill points, but those will vary by character. So if one hero has 4 dice in Stealth, he/she will easily succeed at the tests that the other companions will still struggle with. Which narratively is awesome! And, depending on circumstances, extra successes might be used to help companions.
2. As the heroes become more, well, "heroic", I'm fine with just skipping the rolls they had to make as novices and giving them auto-successes. But they will undoubtedly encounter newer, harder challenges that will have higher TNs. And succeeding at things that would have been impossible in their early years is part of the fun.
3. Trust Francesco. (Which is a mantra I try to repeat when fretting about before-the-roll Hope...)

First of all, the TN is 20 (not 18) minus your attribute level.
Secondly, we don't know how advancement points changed from 1E to 2E, so we need to wait until more news come out to check if they're balanced enough.
But I agree with you, I'm also concerned about these changes.

I am not concerned, I am really looking forward to test it!

I personally feel that having trouble challenging a party of very powerful characters after a campaign has lasted over a hundred sessions isn't the fault of the game. There is a point when the LM needs to start taking accountability for that. I feel like characters of that prowess are reaching Aragorn/Legolas/Gimli status and the challenges and story should reflect that.